[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Waiting for Steel Tender Offers, Market Operating Steadily

On July 22, 2025, the ex-factory prices of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia were 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory prices of high-carbon ferrochrome were also 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the quoted prices of high-carbon ferrochrome from South Africa were 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); and the quoted prices of high-carbon ferrochrome from Kazakhstan were 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis.

The ferrochrome market operated smoothly during the day, with no price adjustments. Most market participants were waiting for steel mills to offer prices. On the cost side, there were no adjustments to chrome ore prices. A round of coke price increases was implemented, leading to a slight rise in the immediate smelting cost of ferrochrome, which provided support for ferrochrome prices. Currently, ferrochrome is mainly delivered under long-term agreements, with limited retail supplies available in the market. Ferrochrome producers' reluctance to budge on prices remained strong, and ferrochrome prices were expected to remain stable in the short term. The increase in total ferrochrome imports boosted ferrochrome supply, coupled with a significant increase in domestic ferrochrome production. It is anticipated that ferrochrome supply will become surplus in the future. On the demand side, in terms of macro policies, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will successively introduce work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. This has invigorated market sentiment, leading to a slight increase in spot stainless steel prices and an improvement in market activity. However, end-use consumption demand has not fundamentally improved, remaining weak overall. Given the sluggish demand for stainless steel, the procurement demand for ferrochrome is limited, and the ferrochrome market holds a bearish expectation for the next round of steel mill bidding prices.

On the raw material side, on July 22, 2025, the quoted prices of 40-42% South African powder at Tianjin Port were 54-55 yuan/mtu; the quoted prices of 40-42% South African raw ore were 49-51 yuan/mtu; the quoted prices of 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder were 56-57 yuan/mtu; and the quoted prices of 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore were 60-61 yuan/mtu, unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis. On the futures side, 40-42% South African powder held steady at $265-270/mt.

The chrome ore market continued its previous stable trend during the day, with no adjustments to quoted prices. As the steel mill bidding price cycle approached, most market participants adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Ferrochrome producers slowed down their purchasing activities, waiting for the steel mill bidding prices to be finalized before making adjustments. Considering the unclear outlook for chrome ore development in the future, traders mostly chose to purchase small quantities of chrome ore during the price stability period to build up their inventories. Currently, the supply of South African raw ore and Zimbabwean chrome ore is relatively tight. Inquiry enthusiasm for these chrome ores has rebounded compared to other types, leading to an increase in actual trading volume. On the macro perspective, market participants are mostly concerned about the subsequent impact of Supply-side Reform 2.0 and the implementation of export controls on South African chrome ore. In the short term, the chrome ore market is expected to experience limited fluctuations, and purchasing activities for chrome ore will remain mediocre before the next round of steel mill bidding prices are finalized.